Average Rent By State & By Year in the US

How We Built These Estimates

The Historical Data (2015-2024)

The foundation of this analysis comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, which surveys hundreds of thousands of households each year. The numbers you see for 2015 through 2024 are official government statistics—specifically, the median gross rent that actual renters reported paying.

"Gross rent" includes everything: the base rent plus utilities like electricity, gas, and water (if the renter pays them). This gives us a realistic picture of what people actually spend on housing each month. The Census Bureau breaks this down by how many bedrooms a unit has, which is why you'll see different numbers for studios, one-bedrooms, two-bedrooms, and so on.

Creating the 2025 Estimates

For 2025, we couldn't just guess—we needed a smart approach that considers what's actually happening in each state's housing market. Here's how we did it:

We started with the St. Louis Federal Reserve's forecast that rents nationwide will grow 3.6% in 2025. But that's just the national average—some states will grow faster, others slower. So we looked at four key factors for each state:

How tight is the rental market? When vacancy rates drop below 5%, landlords have pricing power and rents tend to rise faster. States like California and Massachusetts have very tight markets (under 4% vacancy), while Texas and Louisiana have looser markets (over 9% vacancy). We adjusted each state's forecast up or down based on this.

Where are people moving? Florida gained over 2% in population from 2023 to 2024, putting upward pressure on rents. Meanwhile, states like West Virginia and Louisiana lost population, which tends to slow rent growth. We factored in these migration patterns using Census population data.

How much new housing is being built? Idaho is building nearly 9 units per 1,000 residents—that new supply helps keep rent growth in check. Connecticut is only building 1.6 units per 1,000 residents, which contributes to faster rent increases. We used building permit data to account for these differences.

What's each state's historical pattern? Some states consistently run hotter or cooler than the national average. We looked at how each state deviated from national trends between 2019 and 2024 (skipping the unusual COVID years 2020-2021) and carried forward those patterns.

The Calibration Step

After combining all these factors, our model initially predicted slightly higher growth than the official 3.6% forecast. Since that national forecast comes from authoritative sources and uses sophisticated economic modeling, we calibrated our state estimates to match it. Think of it like this: we kept all the relative differences between states (Idaho still grows faster than Texas) but scaled everything so the national average hits exactly 3.6%.

What to Keep in Mind

These are educated estimates, not guarantees. The model doesn't know about future policy changes, economic shocks, or unexpected events. Historically, forecasts like this are typically accurate within 3-8% for most states. The actual 2025 numbers won't be available until the Census Bureau publishes them in September 2026.

The estimates are most useful for understanding general trends and comparing markets, not for making specific financial or legal decisions. If you need precise numbers for a business decision, it's worth consulting local market data or a real estate professional.

About the Data Quality

The historical data (2015-2024) comes from the official Census survey of actual renters across all 50 states plus D.C. The Census Bureau achieves very high accuracy—margin of error under 5% for most states—by surveying hundreds of thousands of households annually. This is the same data used by researchers, policymakers, and housing economists nationwide.